Manchester United meet Barcelona in the second leg of the Europa League knockout round this evening at Old Trafford with everything to play for.
The first leg ended in a 2-2 draw and with away goals no longer counting in UEFA competitions, whoever wins the match will progress to the round of 16.
According to Opta Analyst’s supercomputer, that will be United.
“Barcelona have only won once in five attempts at Old Trafford. The supercomputer doesn’t fancy them to win this one either,” the stats specialists say.
“It gives them a 29.4% chance of victory on Thursday. Erik ten Hag was delighted with his team’s performance in the first leg, and he’ll be confident of beating Xavi’s side on their own turf.
“As confident as the supercomputer? It gives United a 44.1% chance of winning this one.”
This is a fantastic compliment to United, given that it is based on 90 minutes against a team that is arguably considered to be the best in the world right now.
The supercomputer predicted the chances of a draw being 26.5%. The match would be decided on extra time and penalties if this were the case, increasing the probability of United progressing even further.
After the first leg in Spain, United boss Erik ten Hag complained that his team would have won the game with more clinical finishing.
That is borne out by Opta Analyst’s stats, which show that despite the Blaugrana having enjoyed 61% of the possession, the two sides had an identical number of shots on goal (18).
However, Barça managed eight on target to United’s five, and despite a vastly superior expected goals stat (2.2 vs 1), United could not make those chances count.
If United are able to create as many chances from just one third of the possession, then it bodes well for the home tie, when they should expect to be on the ball more and bury their chances with the home crowd spurring them on.
Another advantage over the first leg is that United will have a stronger squad, with Lisandro Martinez and Marcel Sabitzer returning after suspension and Scott McTominay, who played 30 minutes against Leicester on Sunday, Harry Maguire and Antony all available after injury.
Manchester United could unleash a new midfield in Europa League fixture vs Barcelona
Man United manager Erik ten Hag has some big selection decisions to make ahead of Thursday night’s tussle with Barcelona at Old Trafford.
After chalking up 14 wins in their last 15 Old Trafford outings, Manchester United will rightly head into Thursday night’s Europa League clash with Barcelona with confidence flowing through their veins.
Last Thursday’s pulsating 2-2 draw at the Camp Nou has set the tone ahead of what should be another mouthwatering contest between two clubs with ambitions of returning to the top step of European football. United produced an outstanding performance in Spain last week, so much so that star man Marcus Rashford said the result ‘felt like a loss’.
Despite the Reds’ undisputed improvements this season, few would have given them a chance of visiting the Camp Nou and going toe-to-toe with Barcelona in the manner that they did. They matched them stride for stride and had it not been for some rusty finishing they would have come out on top.
What was most impressive about their performance in Spain last week was the amount of key players they were without. Although Casemiro was temporarily freed from his domestic suspension to be involved, they had to make to do without Lisandro Martinez, Christian Eriksen, Marcel Sabitzer, Anthony Martial and Antony, plus others.
Although Eriksen and Martial remain sidelined, Martinez, Sabitzer and Antony are all back in contention for the visit of Xavi’s La Liga table-toppers. Martinez and Sabitzer, who both started Sunday’s 3-0 win over Leicester City, missed the trip to the Camp Nou through suspension and Antony was sidelined with a leg injury.
While Martinez will be a shoo-in at centre-back this evening, and Antony might be reintegrated into the team slowly and start on the bench, there is a lot less certainty about the role Sabitzer could be given. While Casemiro is a certain starter in United’s trademark three-man midfield, it remains to be seen who will partner him in the other deep-midfield position.
Both Sabitzer and Fred are in contention to start, meaning manager Erik ten Hag has a very difficult decision to make. They started alongside each other in each of the three Premier League fixtures Casemiro was banned for, but the Brazilian’s availability means that one of them is forecasted to miss out. Fred partnered Casemiro in midfield in the Camp Nou because of Sabitzer’s suspension.
However, Sabitzer produced a classy and polished performance on his return to the side against Leicester on Sunday. Operating in a deeper role to what he has been used to previously in his career, he produced his best showing in a United shirt so far, proving both sharp and effective in possession and robust when the Reds didn’t have the ball.
Fred, on the other hand, had a difficult time of it against Leicester, just as he did in the first half in Spain last week. Though his overall game has improved this season, he is not at the level United need him to be, meaning Sabitzer, with the defensive mindset of Casemiro alongside him for the very first time, could be a more suitable option.
Marcel Sabitzer impressed against Leicester City. (Image: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images.)
With Casemiro and Sabitzer locking out two of the three midfield berths, you would usually turn to Bruno Fernandes to complete the trio. However, he has started each of the last two matches on the right-wing, sacrificing himself for the greater good of the team, with January recruit Wout Weghorst taking up residency in the attacking-midfield berth.
While that is not the Dutchman’s natural habitat, he has adjusted well to the role in the last two matches, ever since an in-game tactical switch in the 2-0 win over Leeds United just under a fortnight ago. He was disruptive against Barcelona, blocking their midfield stars from strutting their stuff and weaving their magic, meaning it is possible he could start in the same position again.
If that proves to be the case, Weghorst linking up with Casemiro and Sabitzer in midfield promises to offer something different to what we have seen before. While it is too big a game to experiment and take unnecessary risks, it is a system that Ten Hag could have printed in his mind, recognising how well Weghorst did his job last Thursday.
If he does start there again, the only difference to the midfield trio that started in Spain would be Sabitzer getting the nod ahead of Fred. The Brazilian had a game of two halves and could be a better option from the bench, such is the nature of his game and the energy be brings to the table.
With a famous European victory up for grabs, it is in midfield where the battle could be won or lost.
Source: thepeoplesperson.com; manchestereveningnews.co.uk
